What do you call a market that consistently shrugs off headlines that usually send it tumbling? You call it resilient with a strong underlying demand support.
That’s the bitcoin story in recent weeks, as it the cryptocurrency held firm around $70,000 even as the Iran war rages, oil prices surge, and Fed rate-cut bets evaporate. This kind of defiance screams bullishness.
But hang on, some key indicators are still heading the wrong way, throwing a wrench into that bullish interpretation.
The first indicator is the Coinbase Premium, which measures the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase, a Nasdaq-listed Exchange, and on the offshore giant Binance. Typically, a strong positive premium means U.S. institutional investors are bidding more aggressively than their global counterparts. A strong Coinbase premium has regularly featured during bull runs, including bitcoin’s first run to $100,000 in late 2024.
But right now, the Coinbase Premium is at its most negative in over a month, according to data source Coinglass. In other words, BTC trades at a discount on Coinbase, indicating a relatively softer demand from U.S. investors. The discount reappeared on March 19 and has been growing since.
Another key indicator – bitcoin ETF inflows, also a proxy for institutional demand – has been underwhelming lately.
The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.53 billion in net inflows this month, ending a three-month streak of outflows, per SoSoValue. But nearly $1.3 billion arrived in the first half, with the pace slowing considerably to just $195 million since. Analysts have repeatedly stressed that consistent, strong inflows are crucial for Bitcoin prices to gain bullish momentum.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus Exchange, put it best: “The signal here is that institutional demand has not disappeared. However, it is selective and less linear than in the strongest accumulation phases.”
As of writing, bitcoin changed hands at around $70,000, according to CoinDesk data.