TLDR
- SpaceX will release third-quarter earnings Tuesday, with analysts forecasting $12.74 billion in revenue and earnings of $0.14 per share.
- Kalshi traders placed the odds of Starlink and Starship mentions at 99% and 98%, respectively.
- AI topics dominated prediction markets, with Grok, Cursor, and Data Center among the most likely mentions.
- Tesla merger speculation continued, although RBC Capital Markets said it knew of no actual deal.
- SpaceX faces questions about AI infrastructure spending as analysts project nearly $19 billion in third-quarter capital expenditure.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock approaches Tuesday’s earnings with traders weighing Elon Musk’s talking points against concerns about artificial intelligence spending. Kalshi contracts place Starlink and Starship ahead of possible Tesla merger references.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
SpaceX reports third-quarter results after Tuesday’s close. Analysts expect $12.74 billion in revenue and earnings of 14 cents a share. Management’s call starts at 4:30 p.m. ET.
SpaceX Stock Faces a Test After Last Quarter’s Selloff
The revenue forecast represents roughly 63% growth from the previous quarter. SpaceX shares fell nearly 14% after its earnings beat, as investors focused on the cost of expanding its AI business.
Kalshi traders assigned a 99% chance to a “Starlink” mention and 98% to “Starship.” June closed with 12 million Starlink subscribers. Analysts expect 1.5 million to 1.8 million additions. Starlink airline expansion shows growth beyond household broadband.
The word “Moon” carried 84% odds, compared with 38% for “Mars” and 36% for “Artemis.” NASA targets a crewed lunar landing in 2028, with SpaceX supporting the mission.
AI Terms Dominate Kalshi Earnings Bets
“Grok” traded at 97%, “Cursor” at 96% and “Data Center” at 93%. Other contracts put “Starmind” at 81%, “Colossus” at 78% and “Nvidia” at 74%.
SpaceX plans orbital computers using Nvidia’s Vera Rubin technology. Its terrestrial computing capacity reached 1.4 gigawatts in June. Recent Nvidia AI expansion covered the chipmaker’s push into new models.
SpaceX acquired Cursor for $60 billion in August. New cloud agreements contributed $1.6 billion to second-quarter revenue, while contracted cloud sales totaled $14.1 billion. The AI unit recorded a $1.26 billion operating loss.
Tesla Merger Talk Meets Spending Questions
Kalshi priced a “Tesla” mention at 59%, down 25 points, while “Combine” stood at 24%. RBC modeled a hypothetical $480-per-share Tesla takeover, but said it knew of no deal. Tesla reports its own quarterly results Wednesday. Kalshi priced “Starshield” at 15% and “T-Mobile” at 8%, even as SpaceX expands satellite services and pursues an $8 billion wireless spectrum purchase.
SpaceX spent $18.4 billion on capital projects last quarter. Analysts expect nearly $19 billion this quarter. Similar financing concerns have affected cloud provider CoreWeave’s debt outlook, amid high borrowing costs. Musk aims for $100 billion in annualized revenue by December. That target would require nearly doubling monthly sales from the third-quarter average.
