Investment bank TD Securities has said that the long-awaited crypto Clarity Act has a slim chance of getting passed in a Monday note, citing last week’s delay and potential stalling from the Democrats.
The bank said that now the bill won’t be passed before the summer, it only has a 25% of getting passed in September.
Lawmakers were hoping a crucial vote on the long-awaited crypto market structure bill was to go ahead before a five-week recess but news dropped last week that there was a delay and now the Senate will vote on the bill in September.
“The bill is not dead, but the path forward is harder,” the bank said. “We assign a 75% probability that Clarity fails to become law this fall.”
TD Cowen said one likely outcome was for cloture to pass initially in September but then for Republicans to block Democratic amendments on the ethics and AML sections, leading Democrats to sink the second cloture vote.
It added that it was also likely no cloture vote ever happens. Cloture is the Senate’s procedural tool for ending debate on a bill so it can move to a final vote.
News dropped last week a vote on the bill would have to wait until lawmakers return from August recess. Bipartisan work has gone into the Clarity Act, which was passed by the House of Representatives last year, but some Republicans have accused Democrats of stalling the bill.
The bill, if passed, would be a federal rulebook for U.S. cryptocurrency markets. The latest draft of the Clarity Act contains language — drafted by Democrats and Republicans — banning government officials from promoting or making money from crypto. It started circulating in July.
Still, Democrats like Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has from the beginning criticized the Clarity Act, have claimed that new legislation will benefit the president and his family.
Major financial institutions — not just crypto companies — have backed the bill, including Goldman Sachs and Fidelity, as well as law enforcement groups.