Monday’s 6.74% bounce off TotalES support looked exciting. It wasn’t. The total crypto market cap – excluding stables – is still locked inside a bear flag that started from the January 14th pivot high after a 41% drop. The key difference from the December bear flag is that back then we saw four pierces of the upper resistance line before it broke. Right now there hasn’t been a single tag of resistance. The price keeps gravitating toward support, not resistance. That tells you exactly where the break is going.
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The macro backdrop makes it worse, not better. DXY is working on a bull flag breakout right now. USDJPY is sitting at TBO resistance on the daily – one push above 160 and the Bank of Japan has to intervene, selling US bonds and crashing markets exactly the way it did in July 2024. The SPX has printed three failed double-bottom attempts since February and every single time it just goes lower. The S&P, the Nikkei, the Hang Seng – these instruments don’t reverse on a dime. That momentum doesn’t exist right now.
The downside targets on TotalES: first real support at the February 6th low, then 1.54T, and the most probable bottom around 1.33T – a 35% drop from the current 2T market cap. This follows the same sequence as the 2022 bear market where each artificial support level cracked in turn. Place stink bids at your targets, zoom out to the weekly, and wait. If the yen breaks 160 or the Iran conflict keeps escalating, the timeline compresses fast.
📖 Chapters 📖
00:00 The Only Chart That Matters Right Now
01:00 TotalES Bear Flag: Why No Resistance Tests Is Bearish
03:15 Bear Flag vs December – Key Difference
04:55 DXY Bull Flag + Yen at Breaking Point
06:50 SPX Failed Double Bottoms
07:55 Bottom Targets: 1.54T and 1.33T
09:10 How to Position: Stink Bids and Patience
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🔔 Disclaimer: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.