 
 
Bitcoin may be setting up for a deeper corrective phase, as João Wesson warns that a retest of the 2021 peak near $69,000 is still on the table.
The view is grounded in a historical dominance metric that tracks how many days in Bitcoin’s history saw prices higher than current levels. At present, there are roughly 340 such days that highlight how much of Bitcoin’s long-term price history the market still outperforms.
Historically, major bear market bottoms have tended to form only when this number expands into the 700-800-day range. That zone signals a point at which the current price no longer exceeds most of its past, reflecting widespread capitulation rather than short-term weakness.
Bitcoin is still far from that threshold, and the data suggests the ongoing cycle adjustment may be incomplete, leaving room for further downside before a durable bottom is established.
If this historical pattern continues, revisiting levels below the prior cycle peak around $69,000 cannot be ruled out. Such a move would align with Bitcoin’s long-observed tendency to revisit former all-time highs during prolonged corrective phases.
 
Additional fractal analysis strengthens this cautious outlook. Based on historical cycle symmetry, the next potential macro bottom is projected to form around early October 2026.
Moreover, the most favorable accumulation window is estimated to be between October 6 and October 16, 2026, with a projected price range of $41,500 to $45,000.
While not a deterministic forecast, this fractal framework reflects a pattern Bitcoin has respected more often than ignored, underscoring the market’s tendency to rhyme rather than repeat.
Moreover, current market conditions add to the uncertainty. MicroStrategy has paused Bitcoin purchases in favor of cash reserves, mining firms face profitability pressure amid Bitmain’s hardware price cuts, and extreme fear has returned, with the Fear and Greed Index at 28.
Although ETF inflows totaling $4.1 billion since May and halving dynamics continue to support long-term bullish narratives, whale dominance and fragile global liquidity trends suggest caution. Whether institutional demand can counterbalance selling pressure will likely define Bitcoin’s trajectory in the months ahead.