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Bitcoin just had its most extreme capitulation signal in years.
The highest-conviction holders sold $2.4 billion in 48 hours. 95% of recent buyers are underwater. The short-term holder pain index just hit levels historically associated with final-stage bottoms. Miners are shutting off machines. ETFs recorded their longest outflow streak on record.
And Michael Saylor is being called a fraud in the comments.
If you’ve spent any time in markets, you know what that combination of signals usually means.
But there’s one argument that says none of it matters. That the cycle wins every time. And it’s been right before.
Here’s where I actually land.
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0:00 The Last Holders Broke
1:00 What Capitulation Looks Like
2:39 Saylor Gets Called A Fraud
3:54 The Miner Signal
6:23 ETFs Are Capitulating
7:36 Where The Floor Is
8:10 The Cycle Argument
9:21 The Honest Bear Case
11:13 Where I Actually Land
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