US President Donald Trump said the “leaker on Venezuela” has been jailed, a remark that has renewed scrutiny of prediction markets following a series of well-timed bets earlier this month.
“The leaker on Venezuela has been found and is in jail right now,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Wednesday, according to a video posted by The Wall Street Journal.
Although Trump did not mention prediction markets, blockchain analysts such as Lookonchain have speculated that the leaker may be linked to a cluster of Polymarket accounts that placed concentrated bets on Venezuela outcomes just hours before the news became public.
“We noticed that two of the three wallets that previously profited from betting on Venezuelan President Maduro being out of office have been inactive for 11 days,” Lookonchain wrote in an X post on Thursday.
Some accounts are still active with bets on Iran
Addressing the inactive wallets, Lookonchain highlighted the 0xa72DB1 Polymarket account, which turned a $5,800 stake into $75,000 by betting on Maduro being out of office by Jan. 31, 2026.
Lookonchain also noted the 0x31a56e account, which placed a series of bets on Venezuelan events before disappearing from Polymarket around Jan. 8.
The remaining wallet, SBet365, placed another bet two days ago, predicting that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be ousted by Jan. 31, Lookonchain noted.
SBet365 was also among accounts that gained significant profits from betting on Venezuela on Polymarket, making abour $140,000 from wagers tied to Maduro’s ouster.
“There could be some others [leakers], and we will let you know about that,” Trump said, referring to the jailed Venezuelan leaker.
The events come amid ongoing scrutiny of prediction markets, with US lawmakers pushing a bill to combat insider trading on political wagers.
Related: Prediction market volume hits record $702M despite recent scrutiny
Sean Patrick Maloney, president and CEO at Coalition for Prediction Markets, a national industry alliance formed in late 2025, said coalition members already ban insider trading by enforcing strict Know Your Customer policies.
“It’s critical to draw a bright line between offshore, unregulated prediction platforms and federally regulated US ones,” Maloney told Cointelegraph, adding:
“Consistent with current law, offshore, unregistered platforms should not be able to operate in the US or serve US customers without the same safeguards and registrations, keeping this activity governed responsibly under US oversight.”
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