Wednesday 1 July: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing survey
Prices-paid is the live cost-push gauge to watch. The May headline hit 54, the strongest reading since 2022.
Thursday 2 July: US Non-farm Payrolls
The print has been pulled forward from Friday because 3 July is the observed Independence Day holiday, so the jobs number lands on Thursday this month. With the policy regime seen as having flipped, a hot print would raise concern rather than offer reassurance. A strong reading would strengthen the case for a hike. A clear miss is the most likely scenario to reopen the conversation on rate cuts. Trading volume typically thins ahead of the holiday, and thinner liquidity can amplify the market reaction.
Tuesday 14 July: June Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Data will be released at 12:30 PM UTC, followed by Warsh’s first congressional testimony at 02:00 PM UTC. This is the most data-heavy morning of the month. Core CPI ran at 2.9 percent in May. The question is whether energy costs are bleeding into the core reading.
Wednesday 15 July: June Producer Price Index (PPI)
This is the pipeline read that feeds month-end Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. Final demand goods posted their largest monthly rise since 2009 in May.
28–29 July: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting
A fifth straight hold is the base case, so the signal sits in the language. No new projections arrive until September, so Warsh’s tone will carry most of the weight.
Thursday 30 July: Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) advance estimate
This number and June PCE data land together, the morning after the decision. Core PCE was 3.4 percent in May. Strong growth combined with sticky core inflation keeps a September hike live.
For Bitcoin, positioning will decide the reaction to each print. Heading into a back-loaded month, leverage build-up ahead of the cluster of events from 28 to 30 July is the setup to monitor. Funding rates, open interest and options skew will show whether the market is positioned offside before the data lands.
