Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has fallen more than 35% against Bitcoin (BTC) over the past year, and the downtrend may still have further to go.
Key takeaways:
- ETH may plunge another 40% as it mirrors the 2025 bear trend setup.
- Rising Ether reserves on Binance, even as Bitcoin reserves decline, add to the case for further ETH downside.
ETH risks 40% decline after topping near multi-year trend line
ETH/BTC remains stuck below a multi-year descending trend line that has capped every breakout attempt since 2022, including one that preceded the nearly 70% decline between 2024 and 2025.
ETH/BTC monthly chart. Source: TradingView
A similar setup now appears to be taking shape again.
After retesting the same trend line in August 2025, ETH/BTC was rejected near a confluence of resistance that included the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month exponential moving average (50-month EMA, red).
The pair has since turned lower and slipped back below its 20-month EMA (green) support near 0.034 BTC, a sign that sellers continue to dominate the trend.
The next major downside target for 2026 comes in around 0.0176 BTC if the weakness persists. This level, down about 40% from current rates, aligns with the 2020 cycle bottom.
Exchange reserves highlight ETH-BTC divergence
Exchange data points to persistent sell-side risk for Ether.
As of May, ETH reserves on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume, had climbed to 3.62 million ETH, accounting for roughly 24.6% of all Ether held across exchanges, according to data resource CryptoQuant.
Ethereum reserves on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
In comparison, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen.
Bitcoin reserves on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
Rising exchange balances usually signal that more tokens are available for sale, which can weigh on price when demand is not strong enough to absorb the added supply.
Falling reserves, on the other hand, often suggest coins are being moved off exchanges for longer-term holding.
In that sense, Binance reserve trends reinforce the broader market picture: Ether is facing relatively higher available supply, while Bitcoin is showing signs of tighter exchange-side liquidity.
Related: Four signs that show Ethereum’s rally is exhausted at $2.4K
Ethereum’s weakness reflects a broader shift in fundamentals. For years, Ether has lagged behind Bitcoin in part because Ethereum’s “ultrasound money” narrative has lost momentum.
BTC, on the other hand, continues to draw strength from corporate accumulation led by firms like Strategy and its growing integration into Wall Street portfolios.