XRP traders are sitting on deep short-term losses, with Santiment Intelligence saying the token’s 30-day MVRV has fallen to its lowest level since December 2020. The on-chain analytics firm framed the move as an “extreme undervalued zone” after months of selling pressure pushed recent buyers heavily underwater.
The chart shared by Santiment tracks XRP Ledger’s price alongside its 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios on Sanbase. It shows XRP’s 30-day MVRV at roughly minus 47%, while the 365-day reading also sits deeply negative at around minus 36%. Santiment’s visual marks the current area as an “opportunity” zone, contrasting it with prior elevated MVRV phases labeled as sell-risk territory.
XRP Is In Extreme Undervalued Zone
Santiment said the data suggests the average XRP trader active over the past month is now down sharply, a level that historically has coincided with periods of intense capitulation.
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“The average XRP trader that has been active in the past 30 days is down a whopping -47% with many selling at the bottom,” Santiment wrote. “Historically, MVRV’s average trading returns will always average out to 0%, making this current time an extreme undervalued zone for XRP. The chart shows that XRP’s 30-day MVRV has now fallen to its lowest level since December, 2020, suggesting that fear and frustration among traders have reached rare extremes that have historically preceded strong rebounds.”
MVRV, or market value to realized value, is commonly used by on-chain analysts to estimate whether holders are sitting on unrealized profits or losses. In Santiment’s framing, deeply negative short-term MVRV readings indicate that recent market participants have largely been washed out, reducing the amount of marginal selling pressure from traders who bought near local highs.
That matters because XRP’s recent drawdown followed a strong rally in late 2024 and early 2025, according to Santiment. The firm said many traders entered near local tops before momentum cooled, leaving short-term holders exposed as repeated selloffs dragged the asset lower. The result is a market structure in which average recent buyers are no longer merely underwater, but deeply so.
Santiment also tied the current setup to broader XRP narratives that remain active despite the retracement. The firm pointed to continued optimism among longer-term investors around regulatory progress, ETF speculation and Ripple’s adoption story, while noting that the token has lost more than half its market value since last summer.
“Despite the major price retracement that has seen XRP lose over half its market value since last summer, patient investors still have optimism surrounding regulatory progress, ETF speculation, and Ripple’s long-term adoption narrative,” Santiment said. “XRP rallied aggressively in late 2024 and early 2025, which left many traders buying near local tops before momentum cooled off. But since then, repeated selloffs have pushed many short-term holders deeply underwater.”
The key question is whether the negative MVRV reading marks exhaustion or simply reflects the severity of the downtrend. Santiment did not present the metric as a standalone timing signal. Instead, it argued that historically depressed MVRV levels tend to appear when retail traders have largely capitulated, creating conditions in which relatively modest positive news can have an outsized effect.
“The deeply negative MVRV zone that we’re seeing for XRP now tends to appear when retail traders have largely given up, creating conditions where even small positive catalysts can trigger strong recoveries,” Santiment wrote. “While weak MVRV readings alone do not guarantee a reversal, they often signal that the majority of panic selling has already occurred and downside risk becomes more limited compared to potential upside.”
At press time, XRP traded at $1.33.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com