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Ahmed Barakat
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XRP price closed around $1.35 yesterday after trading as high as $1.43 two sessions earlier. Analyst identifies $1.38 as the level XRP needs to clear for a bullish breakout that could open a path toward $1.60. The setup remains conditional, however, with the token still trading near a closely watched support and resistance range.
Martinez, who posts as Ali Charts on X, has identified a triangle developing between $1.31-$1.35 support and $1.38 resistance. XRP needs to hold the support zone as it approaches the apex of that pattern, while a decisive move above $1.38 would confirm the breakout and could strengthen momentum.
Also, according to Ali, a break below $1.31 could instead weaken the near-term bullish structure and turn the current support area into resistance during a recovery.
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Why $1.38 XRP Matters More Than Most Price Resistance Levels?
Cost-basis data shows that more than 4.8 billion XRP were acquired between $1.31 and $1.38, making the band a potentially important demand zone. If buyers continue defending those levels, the concentration of holders near their acquisition prices could provide support beyond the triangle pattern itself.
The same data also highlights the resistance that may await above the breakout threshold. Approximately 1.99 billion XRP were acquired at around $1.60, followed by another 1.98 billion at around $1.68. That supply suggests $1.60 would be the next major test after a breakout rather than an unobstructed upside target.
Recent derivatives positioning provides a potentially constructive signal. Total XRP futures open interest fell roughly 16%, from 2.77 billion XRP on August 17 to 2.34 billion on August 31, even as XRP rallied almost 40% over the same period. That divergence suggests the rally was not simply driven by traders aggressively increasing leverage.
CME open interest rose roughly 36% to 387 million XRP, raising CME’s share of total XRP futures exposure from around 10% to 17%. The shift could indicate greater participation from professional and institutional traders, although CME positions can also be used for hedging rather than directional bullish bets.
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The Technical Picture Isn’t Confirming Yet
Despite the potential bullish setup, XRP has not yet broken resistance. The 14-day RSI sits around 49.6, which is effectively neutral, while the MACD remains in a sell signal. XRP is also below its 50-, 100-, and 200-period simple moving averages, with the 200-period average near $1.39.
| Level | XRP Acquired at Cost Basis | Technical Role |
| $1.31-$1.35 | 4.8B+ | Active support / triangle base |
| $1.38 | Breakout threshold | Near 200-period SMA resistance |
| $1.60 | ~1.99B | First resistance after breakout |
| $1.68 | ~1.98B | Secondary resistance zone |
That alignment matters because the $1.38 breakout threshold sits near another technically significant moving-average resistance level. A decisive or convincing move above $1.38 would be needed to strengthen the bullish case, rather than leaving XRP below the major moving averages that currently remain overhead.
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