We are now seeing a THIRD TBT Bearish Divergence forming on the TOTAL ES chart (the total crypto market cap excluding stablecoins) and Aaron believes this could be one of the biggest warning signs yet for the crypto market. In this video, he explains why this chart matters so much, how previous divergence signals accurately marked major reversals, and why he still expects significantly more downside for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader altcoin market despite all the recent bullish headlines surrounding crypto regulation and macro developments.
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Aaron also breaks down the major macro events impacting crypto this week, including the latest US-China trade talks, the progression of the CLARITY Act, and why he believes traders may be misinterpreting recent bullish developments from Coinbase and the broader industry. Using the TBO and TBT indicators alongside historical market structure, Aaron explains why short-term optimism can coexist with a larger bearish setup, and why many traders continue to underestimate the risk of another major move lower.
The video dives deep into market psychology, TOTAL ES structure, bearish divergence behavior, and how prior signals compare to what’s happening right now. Aaron explains why he believes crypto is entering another critical phase where traders need to focus on preserving capital, recognizing false hope rallies, and understanding how macro sentiment interacts with technical structure. If you’re trying to understand whether this recent bounce is sustainable (or just another setup before deeper downside continuation) this is a must-watch breakdown.
📖 Chapters 📖
00:00 The Third Bearish Divergence Warning
02:18 Why TOTAL ES Matters So Much
04:41 Comparing This Setup to Previous Market Tops
07:06 Bitcoin, Ethereum & Altcoin Risk Right Now
09:32 The CLARITY Act & Macro News Breakdown
12:04 Why Bullish Headlines Aren’t Saving Crypto
14:37 TBO + TBT Signals Explained
17:03 Preserving Capital in a Bearish Market
19:26 Final BTC Outlook & What Happens Next
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🔔 Disclaimer: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.