Traders have become highly active in FIFA World Cup markets, increasing sensitivity to any misleading automated alerts.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said the exchange is investigating an AI-generated prediction market alert after the platform mistakenly sent users a “breaking news” notification of a supposed Norway 3-2 win against Brazil in the ongoing FIFA World Cup before the match had even kicked off at the MetLife Stadium.
The flash news also showed that Manchester City forward Erling Haaland scored twice to send the Vikings to the quarterfinals.
What was interesting, though, was that Coinbase’s own prediction market page showed the match had been delayed due to poor weather conditions, but even more fascinating was that Norway did indeed end up beating Brazil when the game was finally played, even if with a different scoreline, and Haaland did find the back of the net two times.
Coinbase AI Bashed for Fake News, CEO Vows Probe
The discrepancy was first brought to light by Relay Digital managing partner Jay Drain Jr., who posted on X that the Coinbase AI was “hallucinating results for a World Cup game that hasn’t even been played yet,” calling the notification it was sending to millions of the exchange’s users “factually incorrect” and terming it as “dangerous and irresponsible.”
Some time later, Coinbase chief Brian Armstrong responded to the post, insisting that the company had begun reviewing the incident. This was followed by an update from the firm’s head of consumer and business products Max Branzburg, who said that the team had “fixed the incorrect story” and made some updates to make sure similar errors don’t happen in the future.
“It’s awesome to see the power of AI-enabled 24/7 insights for trading, but obviously still need to tune it to address these types of issues,” stated Branzburg. “And hey, it turns out Norway did win and Haaland did score 2 goals, so maybe the AI knew something we didn’t!”
Polymarket Trader Suffers $11.6M World Cup Loss in 10 Days
As CryptoPotato reported, World Cup fever has seen trading volumes on leading prediction markets skyrocket from around $65 million in early June to a high of $5.6 billion toward the end of that month, with Kalshi seeing most of that action.
And with all that money flowing, quite a few traders have been caught on the wrong side of bets, including one Polymarket user highlighted on June 6 by blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, who reportedly lost $11.63 million during a 10-day betting spree on World Cup markets.
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According to Polymarket records, “Coldsway” placed bets on 15 soccer markets and traded a total of $48.19 million. They counted wins on only four positions, while 11 closed at a complete loss, putting their win rate at 26.7%.
The trader’s biggest winning position generated $1.12 million after placing a $689,318 bet that Australia and Egypt would finish in a draw. They also made $962,940 from a $1.48 million position predicting Egypt would not win the July 3 fixture.
However, several unsuccessful million-dollar wagers outweighed all profits Coldsway made, with the largest single loss reaching $4.95 million as a result of Morocco’s 3-0 win against Canada on July 4. They also lost $3.10 million on a prediction that Canada would not beat South Africa on June 28.
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