Bitcoin (BTC) declined into Friday’s Wall Street open as traders increasingly saw a BTC price breakdown next.
Key points:
- Bitcoin stays below $63,000, heading steadily closer to new August lows while US stocks build on record highs.
- Analysis says that $63,220 must be reclaimed by the weekly close to avoid a deeper rout.
- Markets look to PCE inflation data as the next key test for risk assets.
Bitcoin price sags with stocks at all-time highs
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD down 1.3% on the day at $62,570, near its lowest levels month-to-date.
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Despite encouraging US inflation data lifting risk assets and reducing the odds of interest-rate hikes, Bitcoin failed to follow US equities, which closed Thursday’s session at all-time highs. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index were both green at the time of writing, up 0.11% and 0.14%, respectively.
BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Commenting on Bitcoin price performance, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that Sunday’s weekly close needed to be above $63,220.
“A Weekly Close below the orange level would probably set price up for a breakdown,” he wrote in a post on X.
The analyst noted that $63,000 was now failing as support after weakening throughout August, having previously noted that the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,827 was back as resistance, copying the 2022 bear market.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
Cointelegraph previously reported on increasing chances of a long liquidation event for Bitcoin as it approaches an area of liquidity around $61,000 amid growing open interest (OI) in derivatives markets.
“Traders have added substantial risk, most of it long, into a market that shows no matching demand,” onchain analytics platform Glassnode summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain.
PCE in focus after Bitcoin ignores inflation relief
In its latest analysis, trading and investment company QCP Capital drew attention to crypto markets’ refusal to rally on improving US inflation conditions — a phenomenon it described as “increasingly important.”
Related: Bitcoin speculators keep BTC price ‘pinned’ below $68.7K: Glassnode
“Last week, BTC demonstrated resilience in absorbing several negative headlines without a sustained breakdown,” it wrote, adding:
“This week has reinforced the distinction between resilience and momentum: the range remains intact, but softer inflation data have so far generated only a muted response from crypto.”
QCP added that macro traders are now focused on the Aug. 26 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index release, known as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The index’s last print in July marked its first monthly decline since 2020, per data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
US PCE data percentage change (screenshot). Source: BEA