Bitcoin investors have entered an average unrealized loss of about 20%, while a key on-chain cost basis indicator has climbed to roughly $76,700, creating a resistance level that analysts say is weighing on the market.
Summary
- CryptoQuant’s Darkfost says active Bitcoin investors are sitting on an average unrealized loss of about 20%.
- Bitcoin’s True Market Mean near $76,700 has emerged as a key resistance level based on active holder cost basis.
- Despite ETF inflow concerns, the analyst says Bitcoin may recover before reaching past bear-market valuation extremes.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin’s True Market Mean (TMM) currently stands near $76,700, a level that represents the average acquisition cost of active Bitcoin holders rather than the entire supply. The indicator excludes long-dormant and partially lost coins, making it a measure of the cost basis for actively traded Bitcoin.
Darkfost said the TMM has become an important resistance level because a similar situation played out in May, when Bitcoin approached the same price area, and many investors chose to sell at break-even instead of continuing to hold.
At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $62,596 at press time on July 4, up 1.67% over the previous 24 hours but still well below the TMM level, leaving much of the active investor base underwater.
Active holder cost basis remains above market price
Alongside the TMM, Darkfost examined the Active Value to Investor Value (AVIV) ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value with the cost basis of active holders. According to the analyst, the ratio is hovering around 0.8, placing Bitcoin in what he described as a valuation discount zone.
Based on the AVIV reading, Darkfost estimated that active Bitcoin investors are currently carrying an average unrealized loss of around 20%.
Historical data shared by the analyst shows that previous bear-market bottoms pushed the AVIV ratio down to roughly 0.5–0.6, levels associated with average investor losses of 40% to 50%. Although current conditions indicate widespread losses, Darkfost said the market has not yet reached those historical extremes.
Even so, the analyst argued that Bitcoin may not need to revisit such deeply discounted levels before recovering, particularly because the asset has attracted much stronger adoption during the current market cycle.
He added, however, that institutional participation has not changed Bitcoin’s long-term cyclical behavior and said investors should remain cautious despite continued capital inflows over recent years.
Institutional demand faces new test
The on-chain assessment comes as CryptoQuant separately reported that Bitcoin’s next major rally could require more than $1 trillion in additional capital because of the cryptocurrency’s much larger market value.
According to the firm’s research, roughly $697 billion has entered Bitcoin since 2022, producing gains of about 689%, a smaller return than earlier market cycles despite the substantial inflows.
Institutional demand has also softened in recent weeks as U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded sustained net outflows, raising questions about whether fresh capital can return quickly enough to support another strong advance.
Corporate adoption, however, continues to expand. Strategy, the largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder with more than 847,000 BTC, is evaluating ways to generate liquidity from its holdings without selling them. Galaxy Digital said the company could potentially earn recurring income through conservative lending or options-based strategies while preserving its long-term Bitcoin position.
Beyond corporate treasuries, blockchain infrastructure is also drawing attention from companies developing artificial intelligence systems. Industry participants have argued that autonomous AI agents will likely require programmable payment networks, with blockchain-based payment systems and stablecoins emerging as possible foundations for machine-to-machine transactions even though large-scale adoption is still expected to take several years.