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Bitcoin has closed October higher in 10 of the last 13 years with an average gain of around 18 percent, but last year’s Wrecktober showed how fast a 19 billion dollar liquidation can break the pattern.
The bull case leans on Q4 strength, a green September and strong ETF demand, while the skeptic case points to a small sample size, cooling ETF inflows and Bitcoin still sitting about 30 percent below last October’s high.
The calendar doesn’t move price on its own, so treat October as context rather than a signal and watch the flows, the Fed and liquidity instead.
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0:00 Bitcoin’s October Track Record
0:11 Crypto Needs To Catch Up With Stocks
0:36 It’s October, Baby
1:19 Last Year’s Wrecktober
1:57 10 Green Octobers Out Of 13
2:13 The $126K Top And The 10/10 Crash
2:48 The Bull Case
3:33 $100K By The End Of October?
4:12 The Kalshi Card
5:07 The Skeptic Case
6:17 ETF Inflows Are Cooling
6:48 The Last Two Weeks Of October
7:07 ETH And XRP Sentiment Hits Lows
7:43 It’s Just A Month
8:20 The Lark Davis Newsletter
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